Kevin Andrews: Farewell

Feb 1, 2021 | Australian Values, Border Security, Citizenship, Corruption, Cultural Values, Democracy, Freedom of Speech, Immigration, Legal, OzPol Values, Racism, Religious Values, Terrorism, UK Politics, USPol, Values, War

Kevin Andrews: Farewell

& Good Riddance

So, great news this week in Australian politics!

 

At least and at last some of the scum has begun oozing out under the parliamentary doors. Important slime in this case.

But why is it that the “Father Of the House” is always the worst of the worst?

Before, it was Ruddock, the Nazgul, the nastiest, slimiest bastard who ever pissed and farted his way into the House pretending to be the friend of the People, as long as the “people” were white and/or wealthy. Oh, and straight. And didn’t arrive by boat. He was an abusive “Father” of the House as a Minister. He was malevolent and merciless as the Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs, particularly for his heartless treatment of desperate refugees escaping from wars that Australia’s arsonist “Liberal”/Nationalist politicians had gleefully and enthusiastically (and frankly cock-suckingly) helped to ignite. As Attorney General in 2003 he “introduced the Marriage Legislation Amendment Bill to prevent any possible court rulings allowing same-sex marriages or civil unions.” Nice guy—other crusading decisions on same-sex marriage suggest he was channeling god’s hatred of homos. Worst of all perhaps was his hypocritical wearing of the Amnesty International badge at the same time he was systematically and brutally denying aid to the very people Amnesty International was fighting to support.

But that was before.

The current Father of the House is not long for this political world, and in contrast to the abusive “Father” of the House Ruddock, this one has been a “Deadbeat Dad“; a useless, stupid—and therefore dangerous—piece of shit. They love him in the House because he’s perfect for the Libs—a Useful Idiot; a biddable dickhead; Australia’s version of America’s Lindsey Graham, or the UK’s Chris Grayling.

 

What happened?

 

Well . . . ‘Howard-era stalwart’ Kevin Andrews was (what they call in the US) “primaried“ for the seat of Menzies by the barrister and former soldier Keith Wolahan. Everything is right about this, if more than a decade late. Values Australia has been calling for Andrews’ dishonorable discharge since 2007. He has lost the ultra-right seat honouring the crumbling horror that was Menzies.

Not only that, but he was vigorously supported in his reselection by the top conservative powerbrokers:

  • Health Minister Greer Kunt 
  • Education Minister Ellen Bludge
  • Assistant Treasurer Michail Sucks
  • Treasurer Jess Friedeggburger 
  • Scum from Marketing
  • and, best of all, John Hunt the Coward  

A really delectable and comprehensive FAIL.
 

Why did Values Australia call for Kevin Andrews’ removal/ departure/resignation/whatever it takes?

 

Because he was/(is) incompetent, inhumane in the way only self-righteous christians can be, and—because unintelligent, weak and biddable—dangerous as a loose cannon.

In a post on 2 November 2007 we reported on the ongoing Haneef scandal:

“They were ripping up the doctrine of the separation of powers,” Mr Barns said.

“What you are seeing here is the politicisation of an investigation …”

“It shows there was a pre-judgment by Minister Andrews and the Government, prior to the magistrate’s decision being taken, and this decision was politically stage-managed rather than being done according to law.”

Andrews was at the time Minister for Immigration under the soon to be unceremoniously jettisoned John Howard.

As Sir Roger said at the time, Andrews was “now reduced to being the bumboy for a frail, doomed old man.” 

He dog-whistled racist bullshit about Sudanese refugees to Pauline’s base in the run-up to the election. Unsuccessfully. 

But mostly he should have resigned 13 years ago (or earlier if possible) because for party political advantage, for religious and ideological reasons, contrary to the impartiality of the law, contrary to the interests of the country, you might think well and truly contrary to his oath, and solely in the interests of re-election (oops), he politicised a criminal investigation, prejudged a defendant, preempted a magistrate’s finding and in the process nearly destroyed and sacrificed an innocent man’s life to the racist, morally corrupt Liberal Party.

Sir Roger couldn’t be happier to see the last of Andrews and to see the power of the Power Elite of the government tumbling, crumbling, collapsing, decaying, decomposing, degenerating, deteriorating, disintegrating, dissolving, fragmenting, perishing, putrefying, going to pieces

 

 

Here are some of the Values Australia historical blog posts that are more or less relevant to Andrews:

 

You Can Be Charged for What You Did Today

Keelty Must Go At Last

Who is DIC’s Grima Wormtongue

How Australian Values Are Changing

Nov 20, 2020 | Australian Values, Corruption, Democracy, Economic Values, Education, Legal, Lifestyle & Life, OzPol Values, Racism, Religious Values, Science Values, USPol, Values

How Australian Values Are Changing

Are Australian Values moving left or right?

 

The answer is YES – both. And, more worryingly, also a trajectory outside the known political universe towards the delusional realms of a poltical and social Fantasia. And even more upsettingly, otherwise ordinary-seeming people at the highest levels of government, commerce and public influence have become fierce advocates of “theories” that are palpably bullshit. 

Australians have had, for a long, long time, an enviable reputation for their crisp, fast and accurate bullshit detection. This skill seems to be fading away, particularly—and bizarrely—amongst white, middle class, middle-aged men.

Of course the majority of Australians have been taught from birth to believe in what is not true. Santa Claus, the Tooth Fairy. Gods of whatever cloth or desert origin. They learn early to believe the lies and reassurances of those they most trust: parents, sunday school teachers and priests of any skyhook religion. They get over Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy. 

Now we have a Prime Minister who speaks in tongues of a Sunday and on weekdays believes that to torture children in the name of right-wing political power is a show of compassion. And he is a close family friend of a grown, presumably otherwise intelligent, man who follows bizarre conspiracy theories; a man whose wife works, or has worked, in the PM’s office.

Why? Why do we allow ourselves to be fooled by preposterous, unsubstantiated claims?

Because in school we were never taught logic, logical fallacies, or critical thinking (unless we were lucky).

Most of us were never taught what science really is, or how it is actually done, or the importance of scepticism (no, not cynicism).

And hardly any of us have been taught (or wanted to learn about) statistics and what they do and don’t tell us.

And because those who want to sell to us have learnt how to convince us that we need their product, and if we don’t buy it our lives will be a misery. Those who want to sell to us include politicians, priests and other con artists. Of course.

Anyway

Apart from the boom in conspiratorial, Dark State, UFO, election-stealing bullshit, the left is edging further to the left and the right has dragged itself inexorably towards the far, neo-nazi, authoritarian right.

 

Law and Justice

Australians—according to the Potatocracy of Home Affairs—value the rule of law.

We should not confuse the Law with Justice.

You don’t go to the court to get justice. That is not what the court provides. It provides a legal finding.

The court provides a procedure based on legislation written by lawyers at the request of politicians and agreed to by a majority of parliamentarians. Justice is never, or only rarely, a consideration in the legislation. Judges and magistrates cannot make ‘just’ findings but only ‘legal’ findings. If the two happen to occur simultaneously it’s a coincidence.

Laws have a lot of words. Lots of numbers and letters, lots of sections and subsections and notes. Only lawyers understand these things and lawyers cost money.

Joe Bloggs is not really equipped to deal with all this to get a ‘just’ outcome. And most Joe Bloggses usually can’t afford the fancy lawyers. It’s true some Joe Bloggses in certain specific circumstances can be helped by less fancy, or less experienced, lawyers. So justice, when it is even possible, is often denied. So we may be equal in the law but not before the law in our access to it.

Which brings us to another phony claim about Australian Values:

 

Equal Opportunity

As if.

We love to say it. We love to believe it.

It’s just not true.

There’s a job going in a stockbroking firm. It’s entry level. The starting salary is pretty shit but the opportunities to climb the ladder are attractive. HSC is required.

Out of these three candidates which do you think is most likely to score the job?

1. David is mixed race of Aboriginal descent from La Perouse. He worked really hard and did well in his HSC at a state high school, especially in maths, English and IT. His family is well-known and highly respected in the community. They’re a fairly standard suburban family but aren’t well off and they don’t know anyone in the financial sector. David has wanted a job like this since he started high school.

2. Sarah is the daughter of refugees from Sudan, now Australian citizens. She was born in Australia. She topped her year and got excellent results in the HSC. Her family lives in a predominantly Muslim suburb. Her father knows the local bank manager. She wears a hijab outside the home.

3. Sebastian is the son of a senior executive at the Sydney CBD office of one of the major international audit companies. They live in a mansion at Palm Beach in northern Sydney. Andrew’s dad went to school with the CEO of the broking firm that has opened the job. Andrew scraped through the HSC. He doesn’t know much about money besides how to spend it. He doesn’t really know what he wants to do. He’d rather just sail and party but his mum insists he get a job and start doing something useful.

So who should get the job? Who do you think is most likely to get the job? And how long will he last?

 

Australians are Larrikins? Really?

This claim has been made since about forever. We love it. We love to believe it. It’s a legendary Australian value.

We like to think of ourselves as being larrikin-ish. And we would be, too.

It’s just that right now we’re a bit busy.

Stuffed into a stinking train on our way to another unutterably boring 9 to 5 day at our stupefying job where we do as we’re told because we’re afraid of losing our stupefying job because we need to pay the rent/mortgage.

And when we get home smelling of other passengers’ sweat we’re just a little too tired for larrikin-ising.

But, you know, sometimes we wear odd socks to work or a jokey tie. Will that do?

In any case larrikinism died with Henry Lawson in 1922.

 

The Split

It’s all pretty upsetting that the fissure between left and right (whatever they actually are) is growing. Both ends are informed by batshit conspiracy theories.

The Labor party is easing itself towards the hard right position being vacated by the now increasingly far right/alt-right Nationalist ‘Liberal’ Party.

The evangelical, rapture expecting, theocracy loving, democracy hating sand people built their temples there long ago.

The Greens still don’t really know what they’re doing, or how to do it, but lots of people are moving to conspiratorial fantasies to the left of them.

To be fair, the majority of Australian voters sit around almost exactly in the Centre and just vote for whatever party they and their parents always have.

The words that strike the most fear are Socialism and Fascism. We don’t have either in Australia. We do have authoritarianism and that’s where the LNP is going, especially with failed coup leader, The Racist Potato. But there are many further to the right than him.

We don’t have socialism. We’re don’t do Democratic Socialism. We find that scary and almost communist. But we are a Social Democracy, if not to the extent of the Scandinavian countries. Social Democracy is a policy system that includes:

“economic and social interventions to promote social justice within the framework of a liberal-democratic polity and a capitalist-oriented mixed economy. The protocols and norms used to accomplish this involve a commitment to representative and participatory democracy, measures for income redistribution, regulation of the economy in the general interest and social-welfare provisions.”

That’s why we are consistently amongst the top five of the world’s best countries.

This year, 2020, Australia is rated the third best country to live in after Norway and Switzerland.

Social democracy is why we have, for example, Medicare that means being sick won’t bankrupt us (unlike the US).

Social democracy is what’s at stake if Australia goes sincerely to the far right or the far left.

And if you want to see what a corrupt, authoritarian/oligarchical theft of democracy might look like, there’s one being attempted right now.

In the USA.

By their ‘President’.

If you want to see a historic major political party collapse like the explosive demolition of a skyscraper, that’s also happening right now.

Keep your eye on the Republicans . . .

. . . if you don’t want that to be the future of Australia and Australian Values . . .

 

B’Bye

Nov 10, 2020 | Australian Values, Corruption, Democracy, Global Warming, Legal, Racism, Religious Values, Science Values, USPol

B’Bye

EXEAT – The Planet’s Narrow Escape

Knock! Knock!
Who’s there?
B’bye!

When I was a young lad in an English-style boarding school (of course!) we were permitted, once a term, to leave our prison to spend a day with our parents. In order to do so we had to complete a small, desperate ticket imploring permission. This was known as the “Exeat” which we understood—as Latin was compulsory for the intelligent—to mean “he may go out”.

I never thought I would ever want to use this word again and yet today Exeat brings me unbridled joy. 


HE CAN GO! 

He’s been fired.

It’s a relief and laughing at him is fun in a way and the world needed to be able to take a long deep breath, and dance, for a moment at least.

We have after all, as a planet, escaped the worst imaginable scenario.

The outlook for the climate, for democracy, for international harmony and stability, for global health, for escape from poverty and even for simple decency, all and more were, as they say in the US, ‘on the ballot’.

All and more were at stake worldwide if the Orange Genius had been allowed another four years.

The USA and Australia do share many values, like the idea of democracy, freedom, free speech, the rule of law, government “of the people, for the people, by the people”, the value of science. All these, as we’ve seen have been, to at least an alarming extent, debased, debauched, defiled, depraved and desecrated by Trump and his enablers. If Trump had succeeded—assuming he doesn’t succeed—in gaining another term other people in countries like Australia would have seen it as permission and opportunity and the delicate fabric of global politics would have begun to crumble.

It was, in fact, really scary; really close. And the people who enabled him? The people who couldn’t see through the most transparent con-artist in American history? The people who bought his poisonous snake-oil? The charlatans who used him? They’re still around, still busy, still fighting for this toxic  but useful idiot.

 


The USA’s problem is, at its heart, religion. And at the historic heart of American religion is Calvinist protestantism brought to the east coast by the Puritans. The Puritans came to America to escape religious oppression, seeking religious freedom. But freedom only for themselves. Freedom to tell others what to believe. But others liked the simple idea of freedom. And so America has long had an anomalous culture in which puritanism and hedonism have grated against each other. This friction has caused sparks to fly but full of colour and noise like never-ending New Years fireworks. The astonishing creativity that results is staggering, and not only in the arts and science but also in the art of scamming, especially scamming religion.

But. Of course there’s a “but”. The power of religion in the US has never waned. In fact it has ballooned.

“The fact that stares one in the face is that people of the greatest sincerity and of all levels of intelligence differ and have always differed in their religious beliefs. Since at most one faith can be true, it follows that human beings are extremely liable to believe firmly and honestly in something untrue in the field of revealed religion. One would have expected this obvious fact to lead to some humility, to some thought that however deep one’s faith, one may conceivably be mistaken. Nothing is further from the believer, any believer, than this elementary humility.”
— Hermann Bondi

 

Most of the greatest evils that man has inflicted upon man have come through people feeling quite certain about something which, in fact, was false.

— Bertrand Russell

The incongruity between the freewheeling willingness of Americans to believe absolutely anything with total certainty without evidence or logic and the strict (almost puritan!) scientific method of American scientists of sceptical, careful gathering of and testing of evidence to arrive at an acceptable level of “confidence” in the result, this is mind bending.

So Americans are better trained to believe falsehoods and fantasies—like “angels”—than almost anyone else. They are probably the world leaders in believing things that are not true, and falling for conspiracy theories.  Certainly they are leaders in generating religious scams. Like Paula White who frankly commands “god” what to do:—

 

I have just watched this video and I am now magically converted to the wrath of god. Strike and strike and strike and strike. This woman, this saint, is the real deal. She is not a massive huxster, hoaxster, grifter, con woman like people say. She can talk in tongues so – Here is my creed:

I believe that Paula White is a bona fide living saint who of all the billions of those who have ever lived on earth has private meetings with god. I believe her when she says that god spoke to her, saying he was making Trump win. I believe her when she says angels are coming from Africa and South America to help Trump win the election. I believe she is right that Trump has been sent by god. I believe that the White House is Holy Ground because wherever Paula White goes is holy ground and wherever is holy ground god rules.

I do not believe that Trump has ever been sexist, has never had sex with underage girls, has never met Jeffrey Epstein, that he has never grabbed pussy, or wanted to have sex with his daughter. I don’t believe that Trump’s business model was to systematically stiff his contractors. I do not believe that Trump is a grandiose narcissistic sociopathic. I believe he has improved the unemployment numbers, returned workers to the coal seams and factories and that the farmers who are suffering from the trade war with China should stop blaming Trump.

I believe that Trump has never lied, that wherever he goes he is the least racist person in that gathering. I believe he doesn’t know what the KKK is or who David Duke is. I believe that some white supremacists are good people , that there is not a fascist bone in his body, and that all community-minded compassionate people are evil, anarchistic terrorists.
I believe that he did have bone spurs (which are now, thank the lord, miraculously healed) and if not for that he would have been a great General and would have won the Vietnam War. I believe that Trump is the best negotiator there ever has been and that he would have actually written The Art of the Deal by himself if he had had time. I believe that Trump is admired and loved by all leaders in the world. I believe it has never been his fault and that he has never been responsible. I believe that he always pays millions in taxes every year.
I believe that he is a stable genius, that he has the best memory ever, I believe he knows more about everything than anyone ever, including the scientists and the generals.

I believe that he has all the words, the best words.

I believe that Trump’s handling of the coronavirus has been better than any other country has achieved, that drinking Clorox can kill the virus, that testing increases the number of infections, that 100,000 new cases and 1,600 deaths per day “is what it is”, and that all of this is evidence of his superior leadership and that America doesn’t appreciate and love him enough for all his genius and unequalled skills.

And I believe that he is a loving, compassionate man golfing tirelessly to improve the lives of every single American billionaire.

Trump – Can He Lose?

Oct 11, 2020 | Australian Values, Corruption, Cultural Values, Democracy, Economic Values, Global Warming, Legal, Lifestyle & Life, OzPol Values, Racism, Science Values, USPol, Values

Trump – Can He Lose?

Snake Oil & Fury

 

T here’s no argument amongst Trump’s enemies, his grovelling enablers, and even among millions of his supporters, that Trump is a professional liar, and that“liar”  defines almost the entirety of Trump’s persona. It is not possible to listen to Trump speak or tweet and not be more or less certain that what he says is not the truth. Because he said it. Unless you are the dregs of the Trump base and need to believe him. Others of his base will be well aware of the lies but they are vested in their fantasy outcome. We see this in the desperate illogic of their rebuttals of Trumps dishonesty and incompetence, on twitter and elsewhere.

Trump lies for preference. He will not tell the truth if he can manufacture a useful falsehood. He doesn’t control the truth but he does have control of the lies he tells which he can disown and deny at will. He is also a professional gaslighter and lying, and the confusion of whether he is lying or telling the truth is central to his technique.  

This is not unique to Trump. And, strangely enough, he isn’t very good at it. The Jesuits were — and are — masters of the noble lie. 

 Jesuitical casuistry can be described as “destroying by distinctions and exceptions, all morality, and effacing the essential difference between right and wrong”. 

The story goes that in the Middle Ages catholic priests were barred from entering England.
So when Jesuit priests arrived from the Continent and were asked “Are you a priest,” they would reply, “No.”
Of course to tell a lie was a sin. But they had an excellent work-around, the casuistic argument called “Mental Reservation”, or “mental equivocation”, the lie of necessity.
So when they said they were not a priest, they were thinking, “the questioner might have a particular priest in mind, but I am not that particular priest, so I am not “a” priest he is thinking of.”
Or he might think, “I am not a priest of Zeus,” so when he says “No,” he is, with mental reservation, telling a kind of convenient truth.
But when an argument comes down to the definition of the word “a”  then it’s really just blatant dishonesty.

This casuistry has of course migrated from the church throughout the upper echelons of power and is now the benchmark and basic tool in law, corporations, government bureaucracies, politics at every level (note that habitual liar Tony Abbott was trained by Jesuits) and of course in advertising and public relations.

Basically we’re being lied to for most of every day by everyone who has any sort of use for us and access to us.

And we know it. And we don’t really trust anyone who’s trying to ‘sell’ us something of any kind.

At least most of us don’t really trust them. But some do, and they’re the people who have always fallen for the flimflammers, the con-artists, the snake-oil salesmen, swindlers, grifters – in other words, people like Trump, whose  shills are his children, his donors and almost every Congressional Republican.

That people with brains really can’t see, at least after the first time or second time, how they’re being fooled is, as Fanny D. Bergen wrote in 1888, incredible.

” I t seems almost incredible, whatever their origin, that remedies of so offensive a character as many of those above given can still retain a place . . . but there seems to be in the uneducated human mind a sort of reverence for or faith in that which is in itself disagreeable or repulsive. This idea apparently rules instead of rational judgment

You can certainly say that Trump meets the requirements for both ‘disagreeable’ and ‘repulsive’.

The original Snake Oil salesman was Clark Stanley. He was in his way a showman. Among his tricks was a grotesque and highly dramatic performance. With real, live rattlesnakes.

” C lark Stanley reached into a sack, plucked out a snake, slit it open and plunged it into boiling water. When the fat rose to the top, he skimmed it off and used it on the spot to create ‘Stanley’s Snake Oil,’ a liniment that was immediately snapped up by the throng that had gathered to watch the spectacle. Little wonder. After all, Stanley had proclaimed that the liniment would cure rheumatism, neuralgia, sciatica, lumbago, sore throat, frostbite and even toothache.
Dr. Joe Schwarcz in: Science, Sense & Nonsense

You can see – and unhappily smell – the surely not coincidental similarities in structure and style. So, again, a fairly clear progenitor and influencer for Trump.  

As recently as 24 years ago, Congressman Martin R. Hoke said in a speech: 

“M r. Speaker, there is an old trick to hawking snake oil. First raise the fear. Then sell to it. That is exactly what [they] are trying to do with their latest advertising campaign of fear and blatant disinformation.

 This also matches Trump but, as you know only too well, it is now standard throughout politics and has been at least since Joseph Goebbels.  

Trump is a con-man. There was a saying amongst con men: “There’s a mark born every minute”. Suckers are everywhere and Trump has learnt – probably to his surprise – that the suckers he cons amount to almost 50% of Americans. 

Trump is a professional liar and has been since he was bounced off his father’s knee, since the first time his father promised to catch him but lied and let him crash to the floor.

He learnt to trust no-one.

He learnt that love was a hoax (and that he could use that against others and to control others).

And he learnt to steal from anyone anything that he wanted. 

He practised his frauds and polished his scamming skills on his own family. 

Trump is clearly psychologically impaired and emotionally dead, except towards himself.

All of this is obvious. 

Here is the “grandiosity” section of the Diagnostic Interview for Narcissism (DIN): 

  • The person exaggerates talents, capacity, and achievements in an unrealistic way.
  • The person believes their invulnerability or do not recognize their limitations.
  • The person has grandiose fantasies.
  • The person believes that they do not need other people.
  • The person overexamines and downgrades other people, projects, statements, or dreams in an unrealistic manner.
  • The person regards themselves as unique or special when compared to other people.
  • The person regards themselves as generally superior to other people.
  • The person behaves self-centeredly and/or self-referentially.
  • The person behaves in a boastful or pretentious way.

This fits like a glove at every single point. It’s just one of several diagnoses that Trump fits.

 

So Can Trump Win?

 

Can he win the popular vote? Or the Electoral College vote, as he did last time?

Biden seems to be going well but, as so many of us are thinking, we thought Clinton had it in the bag four years ago too. Is there going to be another disastrous surprise?

Comparing the polling for 2016 and 2020, it’s clear there’s no room for complacency. Clinton was consistently ahead of Trump and had the two major states, Pennsylvania and Florida, in her grasp, as Biden does now. But . . .  below are the comparative projections for 2016 and 2020 produced by fivethirtyeight.com

Clinton’s road was bumpy and volatile while Biden’s has been more or less straight and stable.    

Biden’s chance of winning (81%) is 10% higher than Clinton’s was (71%). 

Biden is ahead in the same two important swing states – Florida and Pennsylvania – that Clinton was forecast to win but lost. So this might be cause for concern. However, Biden is one or two percent ahead of Clinton’s polling in Pennsylvania that Trump won by less than 1%. In Florida Clinton was ahead by about 2% while Biden is 4.3% ahead. Trump won Florida by 1.2%. So it’s Biden’s to lose.     

The simulations for Biden are slightly better than Clinton’s were but there’s not a lot in it.  

 

Unfortunately . . .

there is another predictive model, Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model. This is based on the Primary races in the Spring. Only twice has it been wrong and then it was very close. What it measures basically is the winning margin in the primaries of the party’s winning candidate. This reflects the enthusiasm of people to get out and vote. That’s fair enough because the outcome is not based on polling around who people would prefer to win but how many people actually vote for their candidate.

In the case of this election the Primary Model, published on 2 March, 2020 predicted that the probability of Trump winning was 91%.

That’s frankly upsetting and the only antidote is for Democrats to get out and vote in huge numbers, larger than what’s predicted in the primaries.

  

Three things about this Primary Model prediction:

1.  If the Norpoth Primary Model is valid and conclusive then there would be no need to bother about an actual election. They could go directly from the primaries to the inauguration. It would save billions of dollars. Also what it suggests is that universal suffrage is pointless and that most voters are powerless except for the ones who vote in the primaries.

2.  When the Norpoth prediction was published only four of the 57 primaries had been completed:  Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Biden only won two, but he eventually won 47 overall, ultimately by very strong margins;

3.  This election year is, as people keep saying, “unprecedented”. The Primary Model’s prediction was published on 2 March when the pandemic that has so shaken and globally embarrassed the United States was hardly getting started and the people were being promised that everything was under control and it would quickly, magically disappear.

On 2 March there were just 16 cases and only 3 deaths. Today (10/10/20) there has been a world-beating total of 7,945,505 cases and 219,282 deaths. And rising.

On 2 March the unemployment rate was under 4%; within days it had spiked to over 14% and it remains at about 8%. Many millions are out of work. In mid-September, 8.3 million reported being behind on rent and 3.8 million reported that they were likely to be evicted.

Breonna Taylor was shot six times by the police on 13 March. George Floyd was killed by police on 25 May and the Black Lives Matter movement activated millions of protesters in the US and around the world.

Groups of influential, life-long, baked-on, career Republicans, such as the Lincoln Project and MeidasTouch, infuriated and disgusted by Trump’s dishonesty, his mismanagement of the pandemic (and everything else), and his increasingly corrupt enablers, have turned their considerable and frankly ruthless political skills and experience against him in the Presidential campaign.

The political landscape, and the political issues, were utterly disrupted after the Norpoth prediction was released. So it seems unlikely that data on the number of people who were voting for a candidate—or, importantly, who didn’t bother to vote—in the primaries before 2 March would have been able to give a realistic indication of voting intentions and political engagement eight months later. Americans are now voting in a very different world and there is much , much more at stake.

Again, there is no room whatever for complacency.

If Norpoth is right we should be preparing for an influx of Americans to Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Europe (including, for the moment, if we can, Britain).

As Trump would say, “We’ll see how it turns out.”

 

The October Surprise

Trump gave us an early October Surprise which tanked in the worst way, by dropping three percentage points . Still, he wasn’t letting the facts (such as he was being treated for CoVid19) stand in the way of a performance opportunity, and so he decided to pretend to be the President and stage a motorcade, waving to his adoring minions – who are few in the District of Columbia which is the bluest place in the USA. The fact this was potentially a death drive for those also in the car with him is of no consequence to someone who believes it’s the least they can do to sacrifice their lives for someone so much more important than them. Or frankly anyone.

There was also an earlier alleged attempted September Surprise. Trump was almost certainly infected with the coronavirus when he debated Joe Biden on 29 September, and knew he was infected. So the surprise may have been his attempted assassination by virus of his adversary. What’s the evidence? His campaign and the White House both refuse to confirm or deny his coronavirus status on that day or earlier. His doctors lie. They also refuse to confirm or deny.

 

The Base
and the unwillingness to understand

The greatest failure of the Clinton campaign and possibly the most crucial lesson unlearnt by the Biden campaign is why Trump succeeded against all odds in the 2016 election.

Everyone knows Trump is a con-man and a pathological liar, a sexual predator, a racist and intellectually stupid (but natively and intuitively brilliant at gaslighting people, as sociopaths are).

But Trump got how badly the people were hurting in blue collar, economically declining areas; how uncomfortable, or even afraid, they were of societal changes and cultural forces that were threatening the world they knew and understood and the values that mattered to them. He used this to generate his base by promising what he wouldn’t and couldn’t deliver (because he deeply lacks the intellect required).

His base believed him because they needed to. It was their only hope. They still do and they think it still is.

The last thing a Presidential candidate should call people who are hurting, who are afraid, who are confused, who are afraid of losing what dignity they have left, the last thing is to call them “deplorables”. When Clinton did that she showed lack of compassion, lack of understanding, lack of interest in those people and it was a massive own goal, the results of which still haunt the Democrats.

The one thing Biden should have done, has not specifically done, and which, if he doesn’t do it could lose him the election, is to directly address those people who are hurting and say he gets it, gets their anger, pain and upset, and tell them how he is going to help them.

The Gentility
& the Lincoln Project

The problem with the Democrats is that they are so polite. You wouldn’t be rude, not even to an enemy.

A senior MI6 bureaucrat explained to a journalist that he was always polite to representatives of hostile nations. “Yes, but when they’ve done something really bad, how do you show them you’re angry?” “We don’t offer them a cup of tea.”

Or as Veronica Roth wrote: “Politeness is deception in pretty packaging.” Although it has been designed to enable social intercourse without violence, it actually isn’t nice at all. It’s intentional inauthenticity. And it has a more than a tinge of superiority and entitlement. The violence is hidden but still there.

The Democrats need to hide less behind social sophistication and start speaking more authentically.

That is what the Lincoln Project and MeidasTouch do, because they’re not Democrats but Republicans. They know how toxic Trump is and how to talk to Republicans and swing voters. They are ruthless and that’s a lesson the Democrats could learn from, because the stakes are so high.

Losing politely is not an option.

 

The Anger

Sir Roger is furious with Trump, not for the reasons you might imagine but because when Trump (reportedly) contracted COVID-19 Sir Roger in his darkest heart for a moment hoped Trump would die and save the US from any more of his horrors. This is not the sort of person Sir Roger believes himself to be or ever wants to be and Sir Roger is angry that Trump moved him to this feeling if only for a nanosecond. Sir Roger now feels that justice would be better served if Trump survived the virus, lost the election, and was subsequently indicted and found guilty of all of the corruption that he has progressed, during his term in office and before. And so he would pay for the damage he has done to the US and its people. But Sir Roger stops well short of politely wishing him well (like a Democrat).

  

The Shame & the Laughing Stock

Donald Trump for four years has shamed his country. Americans are aware, surely, of how poorly he has ‘led’ the country, how he has failed it, how it has fallen in the estimation of people from almost every other country except, of course those other countries who find Trump a Useful Idiot; countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia. People in the rest of the world feel genuinely sorry for Americans who have to suffer the political and cultural fiasco that Trump has visited on them.

At the same time they are laughing their heads off at the incompetence and obvious con artistry of Trump and at the people who are stupid enough to believe he is their saviour and that he has been doing a valuable job.

 

The Reality Mafia Show

One of the most interesting things about the criminal ‘Presidency’ has been, despite all the lies and obfuscations, the fact that the interminable, torrential, wall-to-wall, floor-to-ceiling lies have provided an extraordinary, absolutely transparent view, through the White House Reality Show of how the Mafia operates. Starring The Don, a bankruptcy-prone con-man. It’s thrill-a-minute, complete with shadowy international accomplices, thugs, threats, bribes, blackmail, corrupt officials, and mass-murder. And all there, laid luminously bare.

 

How is any of this about Australian Values?

 

Global stability

Compassion

Decency

Climate Change/ Global Warming

The future of the planet and life on Earth including the lives of our children and their children and theirs etc. etc. etc.

Freedom

Democracy.

And the more time Trump has, the more permission he gives to others like the Australian Right to become more and more authoritarian.

And so much more.

Never forget what Trump’s main advisor in the 2016 campaign, Steve Bannon, said:

“I want to bring everything crashing down, and destroy all of today’s establishment. . . Darkness is good. Dick Cheney. Darth Vader. Satan. That’s power.”

 

If only there were a god to rid us of this turbulent prick, Trump.

 

The Real Showman 

” But however mysterious is nature, however ignorant the doctor, however imperfect the present state of physical science, the patronage and the success of quacks and quackeries are infinitely more wonderful than those of honest and laborious men of science and their careful experiments.

Phineas Taylor (PT) Barnum, The Humbugs of the World (1865)

 

 

Jefferson Says – Reboot

Sep 28, 2020 | Australian Values, Citizenship, Cultural Values, Democracy, Legal, OzPol Values, USPol, Values

Jefferson Says – Reboot

President Kennedy told a gathering of Nobel Prize winners at the White House,

"I think this is the most extraordinary collection of talent, of human knowledge, that has ever been gathered together at the White House, with the possible exception of when Thomas Jefferson dined alone."

This post was first published ten years ago. Jefferson, 3rd President of the United States, was writing 200 or more years ago. His words were wise and prophetic. Especially today, particularly at this time when tyranny seems more than ever before to be threatening the democracy of the United States.

 

We the People

 

Thomas Jefferson was the third President of the United States, a man of the Enlightenment, the principal author of the Declaration of Independence, one of the most influential Founding Fathers, who envisioned America as the force behind a great “Empire of Liberty”.

Sir Roger knows that his loyal readers are impatient to hear what the great Jefferson, Father of the American experiment and of whom all Americans are so rightly proud [except Glenn Beck] would have said about the Wikileaks matter.

Here is what he did say:

“ Information is the currency of democracy.

[ … ]

If once the people become inattentive to the public affairs, you and I, and Congress and Assemblies, Judges and Governors, shall all become wolves.

[ … ]

The spirit of resistance to government is so valuable on certain occasions that I wish it to be always kept alive.

[ … ]

I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it.

[ … ]

Experience hath shewn, that even under the best forms (of government) those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny.

Just so.

Sir Roger also notes that the Constitution of the United States begins with the words:

“We the People … do ordain and establish this Constitution of the United States of America”.

Not 'we the politicians', or 'we the Executive Branch', or 'we the diplomats', or 'we the oil companies', or 'we the bureaucrats', or 'we the bankers', or even 'we the military'.

“We the People…ordain”.

Nothing could make clearer the source of all authority in the United States — as it is in every other democracy in the world —  and any authority arrogated otherwise is illegitimate.

 

The Real Anarchist

Sep 10, 2020 | Arts, Australian Values, Corruption, Cultural Values, Democracy, Economic Values, Legal, Lifestyle & Life, Media Values, Racism, USPol, Values

The Real Anarchist

“I’m a Leninist” *

 

Trump has branded democrats and protestors as terrorists and also as anarchists. And because he likes the wacko Q narrative  – or likes to use it to manipulate his stupid base –  he sees the dark agents of doom in every corner.

But anarchists? The perfect patsy, a “useful, biddable idiot”, a deeply ignorant, psychopathic, personality-disordered, narcissistic buffoon he was scraped up, groomed and dragged into his “presidency” by a self-described . . . wait for it . . . anarchist.

That real anarchist is the unutterably awful, extreme-right, woman-hating, anti-democratic, supposedly communist-loving, power-mad, fake-news propagandist, pus-brained Steve Bannon.

What is this if not hot-lead anarchism:

“I want to bring everything crashing down, and destroy all of today’s establishment.”

And he’s willing to destroy not only the establishment but the people.

“Darkness is good. Dick Cheney. Darth Vader. Satan. That’s power.”

Good grief! Cheney? Cheney taught Satan everything he knows, and is so deep in the Establishment you’d have to pry him out of the magma chamber where he and his heart machine ‘live’.

As you know, Bannon was arrested and charged on 20 August with mail fraud allegedly involving the misuse of multi-million-dollar funds — donated to build the notorious “Wall” — for personal expenses. So much for destroying the Establishment.

Why should we care?

Because the US is important to global stability. Yes it could do with some political cleansing.

For any other actually democratic country the supposed “leftist/socialist” party, the Democrats, would be considered hard right. The conservatives are beyond alt-right, being absent any sense, or understanding of ethics and bereft of any ‘moral compass’ and are more or less irreparably the party of robber barons and their weak thoroughly bribed and compromised political tools.

But the people of America are for the most part fine people, generous people, fun-loving people, wildly creative people, enthusiastic energetic people, incredibly clever people.

They don’t deserve this.

Nor do we.

 

If Trump gets another go the whole world will be left in turmoil.

 

*  Sir Roger, by contrast, is a Lennonist