We have a nailbiter, yes, but it’s not the overall result which still looks pretty much assured.

In fact the betting market is back almost exactly where it was a month ago on $1.29 for Labor against $3.71 for the Coalition. It has been a little bit mobile today, after Tony Abbott’s Press Club speech (not that there’s any connection necessarily).

Bennelong is the real cliffhanger, though.

Betting on McKew and Alexander is all over the place:

1.82 (Labor) vs 1.98 on Betfair.
1.95 vs 1.72 on Luxbet
1.88 vs 1.88 on Centrebet
1.90 vs 1.90 on Sportingbet

Eden-Monaro (the “bellwether seat”) looks safe for Labor, averaging about 1.30 vs 3.20 and because Eden-Monaro has always gone with government since 1972 that’s good news for Labor – if you’re superstitious.

Melbourne, Lindsay Tanner’s old seat, is going to the Greens at about 1.50 to 2.40 so as far as one can tell, Adam Brandt will be only the second Australian Greens MHR ever, after Michael Organ (Cunningham, NSW) in 2002–04.

[tags]election, election betting, Australian election, politics, Australian politics, federal election, Abbott, betting, odds, market, gambling, Bennelong, McKew, Maxine, John Alexander, cliffhanger, Eden-Monaro, bellwether, Lindsay Tanner, Adam Brandt, Greens, Australian Greens, Abbott, Press Club, Gillard, Labor, Coalition, Liberal, graph, political values, Australian values[/tags]