Latest Newspoll Quarterlies
Newspoll released its quarterly polling results in today’s Australian.
The cumulative results are available here (.pdf)
More interestingly, the voting intentions in marginal seats are available here (.pdf). The concern amongst people who are keen to see not so much a Labor win as a coalition loss has been that even the very strong aggregate polling is no guarantee of a Labor win. Labor has to win marginal seats but quality information about voting intentions in marginal seats has been quite scarce. These results show that Labor is well ahead in the marginals as well. The results seem strong enough to protect Labor against any normal shift back to the coalition. It would take something catastrophic, – say, Medicare Gold? – to cause then to lose the election. Rest assured, John Howard will try his hardest. (Note the scare campaign already on sub-prime mortgages fallout – ‘These turbulent, worrying (terrifying?), uncertain, financial days are not the time to switch horses to a party that has n’t been screwing the citizenry for 12 years.’
For the best look at the polls and for good graphs the best value is at Possum Pollytics and also OzPolitics.
Thge best belly laugh is Shanahan‘s article which accompanies the Newspoll results.
ABC‘s psephologist Anthony Green has a fun new toy tool which you can play with. Put in the swings or 2PP voting intentions and see what Labor’s majority could be.
On the subject of polling tools, Nexus has produced an interactive tool for a poll of Melbourne and Sydney voters. You can cross-reference, or sort the results by variables such as voting intention, age, occupation, expectation of financial impact etc. etc. Very revealing. For example, to our surprise we discovered that even business managers and executives are more likely (55.6%) to expect to be better off (17.2%) or about the same (38.4%) than worse off (39.7%) if Labor is elected.
In other news….
Technorati Tags: Newspoll, quarterly, polling, Australian, voting intentions, marginal seats, Labor, coalition, aggregate, Labor win, marginal, catastrophic, Medicare, Gold, John Howard, graph, Possum Pollytics, OzPolitics, belly laugh, Shanahan, ABC, psephologist, Anthony Green, fun, toy, tool, swing, 2PP, majority, Nexus, interactive, Melbourne, Sydney, cross-reference, variable, occupation, financial, business manager, executive, Oil, Rupert, Australia, Australian values, Values Australia, values, cost, price, worth, politics, political, Australian poliltics, government, Australian government, politics and government, election, federal election, Australian election, Rupert Murdoch, Iraq
Posted: September 21st, 2007 under Aussie Citizenship, Australian Politics, Australian Values, Computing, Guantanamo/Hicks, Iraq.
Comments: 3
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Comments
Comment from Lang Mack
Time: 22 September, 2007, 9:09 am
Patricia:Being a mother of eight, albiet not at all planned, can advise however, Mr.Rudd has the ability to “eye” the opposition, that the slander and muck raking that will be forthcoming,will be only to the loss of Mr.Howard.
As a field manager, I find that I am amazed that the opinion was so low that us front line managers did not get a higher (55.6%) percentage points, love that, percentage points,as we are the casting importance when it comes to keeping this Nation on “off the Sheeps back’ so to speak, and Mr.Howard and his underlings are only being self serving from my point of view. I think it’s best if you all vote for Mr.Rudd and even though there have been times when I have felt marginal, I have always thought, “the wool is not to be pulled over my eyes, not then,not now and as I am a proud type, to cost, not ever’. (I have NOT claimed the baby bonus, ,we get by).
Comment from roger migently
Time: 22 September, 2007, 2:09 pm
Values Australia wishes to congratulate Madam Patricia and to thank for her contribution to Australia’s future. Her generosity knows no bounds! One for Mum, one for Dad and SIX for the country! This is beyond Mr Costello’s wildest imaginings (but then his imagination is rather limited – specifically limited to wondering when, if ever, he will become Prime Minister).
Are you quite sure you can’t get the baby bonus? You could almost afford to retire on that.
Comment from Lang Mack
Time: 24 September, 2007, 9:06 am
Mr. Mygently, nipple/milk/demand/supply/ethics.Whilst you suggest that my ‘Oh dear,lust has become me,again moments’ has resulted in a thought t’words a LIBERAL hand down of gratitudes of my strained loins, I find your remark somewhat out of character,this time you will be forgiven,any further cynical or patron like remarks will bring saliva and imprints that one may well consider.In the future. Patricia.
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